Middle Market Indicator Fall Update: Uncertainty weighs on Middle Market leaders

Chubb partners with the National Center for the Middle Market (NCMM) to support the Middle Market Indicator (MMI), a semiannual research survey launched in 2012. The insights gained through this partnership plant the seeds of new ways Chubb can support and protect middle market businesses in a rapidly changing world.

The MMI polls 1000 executives (CEOs, CFOs and other financial decision makers) from middle market companies with $10 million to $1 billion in annual revenue.

This mid-year update, based on the MMI survey fielded in June 2025, spotlights executives’ views on business challenges, growth drivers and economic outlook. 

In our year-end 2024 survey, middle market leaders were cautiously optimistic about the year ahead. Six months into 2025, caution is taking the lead, as uncertainty weighs on performance and confidence. Leaders are navigating a complex and shifting business landscape.

Top challenges facing middle market companies include:

Economic and Financial:

• Inflation/rising costs (materials, services, inputs)
• Economic uncertainty
   

Market and Regulatory:

• Impact of trade policy
• Competitive pressures
   

Workforce and Talent

• Attracting and hiring qualified talent
• Rising labor costs
   

Operational and Technology

• Cybersecurity and data privacy
• Maintaining operational efficiency

Companies continued to report positive revenue growth in the first half of 2025. While the survey showed that the rate of middle market revenue growth has slowed, it continues to far outpace growth of the S&P 500. Middle market leaders are laser focused on ways they can improve financial performance. Their key strategic objectives support growing revenue/ increasing sales, improving profitability/ margins and expanding their customer base.

Indicative of its role as an engine of the American economy, the Middle Market continues to build its workforce at a substantially faster rate than small businesses or large corporations. More than half of middle market companies (54%) increased their workforce. Companies expect to continue to grow, though at a slower rate, into 2026. Life Sciences, Food, Technology, Manufacturing and Financial Services companies reported the highest rate of employment growth. Healthcare lagged significantly behind.

Though leaders' confidence in the national and global economy has fluctuated at mid-year, substantial numbers shared near-term plans for expansion. About 57% of core Middle Market companies plan to introduce a new product or service. Additionally, 53% of companies anticipate domestic expansion in 2025.

Caution has taken center stage as uncertainty begins to weigh heavily on performance and confidence. Will the nimbleness of Middle Market leaders continue to carry it forward with success and prosperity? At Chubb, we believe it will. And we'll be here for these companies every step of the way.