Cam Bagrie, Economist, Webinar one: Understanding Consumer Behaviour.

With the 2026 election approaching, I know many of you are thinking about how economic uncertainty may influence customer behaviour and decision-making,  especially in terms of taking out a new policy or reviewing cover levels due to current or perceived future cost of living concerns.

In summary, Cam's overall message was one of cautious optimism. While rising expenses remain an issue, he pointed to positive signs emerging, mainly being led by regional and rural communities in the South Island. He also noted that the New Zealand media can tend to paint a dire picture of the economy, but that our imports and exports are showing positive signs, especially in the lower half of the country. In addition, compared with our trans-Tasman cousins, New Zealand is more cohesive and supportive of diversity than Australia with signs of many moving back home

With that in mind, here are a few key takeaways that may be useful in your conversations:

Taxes are likely to continue to contribute to financial pressure:  Rising taxes may be the reality in the medium/longer term, driven by an ageing population, growing healthcare costs and ongoing infrastructure demands. Working with your customers to look at cost saving options to help them retain rather than cancel their policies and giving them confidence in the future with key messages is a key component of both keeping existing business “sticky” and securing new business.

The real issue may be income, not just cost of living:  Cost of living is front of mind for many, but weak income growth and low productivity are the deeper challenge. A major theme from Cam's session was the need for genuine reform, particularly around competition policy which could help address both the cost-of-living challenge and the underlying income problem over time. The pressure on household budgets isn't just about inflation; it's also about whether the economy is delivering better earnings and fairer outcomes. Shifting that lens in conversations, from managing short-term costs to building long-term financial resilience, is where you as an Adviser can add expert value right now.

There's more shaping markets than interest rates: For decades, interest rates were the main driver of financial conditions. That's changing. Geo-politics, government spending decisions and regulation are all playing a bigger role. But this isn't all bad news. A more diversified economic picture also means more ways to help customers make sense of what it means for them personally.

Uncertainty is now part of the planning environment: Elections and policy shifts create noise and customers will feel it. Your role is to help them stay anchored to their long-term goals rather than react to every headline. Advisers who do this well tend to come out of uncertain periods with stronger relationships than when they went in.

We hope these insights help provide some useful context as you continue supporting your customers.